Global property markets in 2026: Where prices are rising—and where they aren’t
In 2026, global housing markets are moving in different directions at once: some are reflating on the back of rate cuts and tight supply, others are stuck in low-growth limbo, and a few are still digesting the excesses of the pandemic boom. The biggest drivers are familiar—interest-rate paths, inventory, household income growth, and migration—but their mix varies sharply by region. This overview maps the markets showing the clearest price momentum and the ones facing ongoing headwinds, with an emphasis on what is changing now rather than what changed last cycle.
- The 2026 setup: Rates ease, but affordability remains the gatekeeper
- North America: Resilient demand, but a split between high-growth hubs and plateau markets
- Western Europe: Supply shortages underpin prices, but policy and taxation shape outcomes
- Southern Europe: Tourism and remote work lift select markets, while domestic affordability lags
- Nordics and the Netherlands: Interest-rate sensitivity meets constrained supply
- United Kingdom and Ireland: From reset to selective recovery
- Middle East: New supply tests depth of demand, while prime segments stay buoyant
- Asia-Pacific: Diverging paths between undersupplied cities and policy-constrained markets
- China and Hong Kong: Stabilization efforts face structural headwinds
- What to watch: Indicators that separate rising markets from stagnant ones
The 2026 setup: Rates ease, but affordability remains the gatekeeper
Across many economies, 2026 is defined by a gradual normalization in borrowing costs rather than a return to ultra-cheap money. Where central banks have started cutting, monthly payment pressure is easing, but the cumulative jump in prices since 2020 means affordability is still the binding constraint. Markets with high household leverage and short fixed-rate terms tend to respond faster to rate changes, while countries dominated by long fixed-rate mortgages move more slowly because most existing owners are insulated from new-rate moves.
At the same time, supply constraints have become structural. Planning restrictions, labor shortages, and higher construction costs keep new completions below what population growth and smaller household sizes require. In 2026, price growth tends to be strongest where inventory is scarce and inbound demand is durable, and weakest where new supply is finally arriving or where demand is curtailed by taxes, credit controls, or weak income growth.
North America: Resilient demand, but a split between high-growth hubs and plateau markets
In the United States, the defining feature remains the “lock-in” effect from millions of owners holding low-rate mortgages, limiting resale supply and supporting prices in many metros even when transaction volumes are modest. In 2026, price gains tend to concentrate in areas with strong job creation, diversified economies, and constrained building pipelines—while some pandemic boom towns face flatter outcomes as investor activity cools and new subdivisions add supply.
Canada’s market dynamics continue to hinge on population inflows and local supply elasticity. Where immigration and student demand remain elevated, rents stay firm and prices find support; where affordability has become extreme and condo supply is heavy, pricing can stall. For both countries, the clearest risk to further appreciation is not a sudden crash but a drawn-out period of real-term stagnation if wage growth fails to catch up with housing costs.
Western Europe: Supply shortages underpin prices, but policy and taxation shape outcomes
Western Europe in 2026 is characterized by tight housing stock in major cities, aging rental supply, and a slow development pipeline—factors that can push prices up even when GDP growth is muted. Markets with strong household balance sheets and stable employment can see steady appreciation, particularly where mortgage rates have eased and competition for quality family housing remains intense.
However, Europe is also where policy matters most: energy-efficiency regulations, rent controls, and higher transaction taxes in some jurisdictions can suppress investor demand or shift it to new-build segments. The result is uneven performance: prime, well-located assets with good energy ratings can command premiums, while older stock that requires costly retrofits may underperform. In short, 2026 rewards scarcity plus compliance—and penalizes properties that are expensive to upgrade.
Southern Europe: Tourism and remote work lift select markets, while domestic affordability lags
In parts of Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Italy, 2026 demand is increasingly shaped by lifestyle migration, short-let economics, and foreign capital targeting coastal cities and heritage centers. Where air connectivity is strong and rental yields remain attractive, prices can rise despite modest local wage growth. These markets often behave more like international consumption hubs than purely domestic housing systems.
Yet the same forces can create political pressure. Restrictions on short-term rentals, residency schemes, or higher taxes on non-resident buyers can quickly cool segments that were previously hot. The markets most likely to keep rising are those with balanced regulation, diversified demand (not only tourism), and limited developable land—while places reliant on speculative buying or a single buyer cohort can see sharper pauses.
Nordics and the Netherlands: Interest-rate sensitivity meets constrained supply
Nordic housing markets are among the most interest-rate sensitive due to mortgage structures and high household leverage. In 2026, the easing of rates can translate into renewed buyer activity—particularly in urban cores with strong labor markets—yet the rebound is often measured because affordability metrics remain stretched. Price growth is more plausible where listings are thin and new construction remains subdued.
The Netherlands continues to face one of Europe’s most persistent housing shortages, which supports prices even amid regulatory and political noise. However, investor participation is more selective where rental rules tighten, shifting demand toward owner-occupiers and new-build product. Across these markets, the “won’t fall” narrative is typically grounded in structural undersupply, while the “won’t surge” constraint is the household budget.
United Kingdom and Ireland: From reset to selective recovery
After earlier volatility driven by mortgage repricing, the UK in 2026 often looks like a market in transition: transaction chains are functioning again, but buyers remain price-sensitive and prioritize energy efficiency, commute value, and school catchments. Where rate cuts have filtered through to mortgage deals, sentiment improves, yet price growth tends to be uneven—stronger in supply-constrained areas and weaker where affordability is most stretched.
Ireland’s chronic housing shortage and strong employment base continue to support both rents and prices, but policy and delivery capacity are decisive. If completions meaningfully rise, price growth can cool without collapsing; if supply remains behind demographic needs, upward pressure persists. In both countries, expect regional dispersion rather than a single national story.
Middle East: New supply tests depth of demand, while prime segments stay buoyant
In 2026, several Middle Eastern markets continue to attract expatriate talent, entrepreneurs, and wealth migration, supporting prime residential demand. Where governments have invested in infrastructure, visas, and business-friendly regulation, real estate remains a key channel for capital deployment. This supports price resilience in top-tier locations and branded or waterfront product.
But the region’s differentiator is the speed at which supply can be delivered. Large development pipelines can cap price growth in mid-market segments if absorption slows, even as the prime end holds up. The key question becomes whether demand is broad-based (end users and long-term residents) or driven mainly by investors chasing short-cycle gains. In 2026, price outcomes hinge on absorption versus delivery.
Asia-Pacific: Diverging paths between undersupplied cities and policy-constrained markets
Asia-Pacific in 2026 is the clearest example of divergence. In some markets, tight land supply, strong migration into major cities, and resilient labor conditions keep prices trending upward, particularly for family-sized homes near transit and employment nodes. Where construction lags household formation, rents and prices can rise together, reinforcing the investment case.
Elsewhere, macro uncertainty and regulatory settings keep a lid on appreciation. Credit limits, buyer taxes, and macroprudential rules can mute the response to rate changes, especially when policymakers prioritize stability over rapid reflation. Across the region, price growth is most consistent where policy is predictable and where urban demand is structural, not cyclical.
China and Hong Kong: Stabilization efforts face structural headwinds
China’s residential market in 2026 remains shaped by the aftereffects of the developer deleveraging cycle, shifting demographics, and a more cautious buyer base. Even where local support measures improve sentiment, the recovery is typically uneven across city tiers. Markets with diversified economies and limited overbuilding can stabilize earlier, while areas with surplus inventory may continue to see weak pricing power.
Hong Kong’s performance depends heavily on financing conditions and capital flows, with sensitivity to global rates and local sentiment. In 2026, selective demand can return to well-located, scarce assets, yet broader price growth may be constrained if affordability remains extreme and household income growth is modest. The overall picture is less about a uniform rebound and more about damage control and segmentation.
What to watch: Indicators that separate rising markets from stagnant ones
In 2026, the most useful signals are practical rather than headline-grabbing. Instead of relying on national averages, track whether demand is real (end-user household formation) or financial (leveraged investor churn), and whether supply is truly constrained or merely slow to show up in listings. A market can look tight while a wave of completions is already queued for delivery.
Where these indicators point to tightening conditions—falling inventory, stable credit, and rising rents with limited new supply—prices are more likely to rise. Where they point to affordability strain, policy clampdowns, or a delivery surge, markets are more likely to plateau or drift in real terms.
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